Como 1907 vs Parma Calcio 1913 prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 2.63 to 0.24 on expected goals, with 54.8% for over 2.5 goals in the Serie A.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Como 1907 host Parma Calcio 1913 in the Serie A, kicking off Monday 14 September at 16:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 2.63 for the hosts and 0.24 for the visitors, a combined 2.87 goals against a competition norm of 2.72.
Como 1907 are a clear favourite at 87.5%, with the draw back at 10.9%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Como 1907 — last 10: W-W-D-W-W-W-D-W-L-L (most recent first). That is 19 scored and 10 conceded, 1.90 and 1.00 per game. Both teams scored in 6 of the 10, and 5 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 4 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-D-L-W-W across 5, 11 scored and 5 conceded.
Parma Calcio 1913 — last 10: D-L-L-W-L-L-L-W-W-D (most recent first). That is 7 scored and 11 conceded, 0.70 and 1.10 per game. Both teams scored in 3 of the 10, and 1 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-L-L-W-D across 5, 2 scored and 6 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 4 meetings on record, Como 1907 have won 2, Parma Calcio 1913 0, with 2 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 17 May 2026: Como 1907 1-0 Parma Calcio 1913.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 2.87 goals in this fixture, above the Serie A norm of 2.72, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
Como 1907 carry the larger share of that expectation, at 2.63 against 0.24. Both teams to score sits at 20.6%, and over 2.5 goals at 54.8% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Como 1907 win | 87.5% |
| Draw | 10.9% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 1.6% |
| Both teams to score | 20.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.8% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 2-0 at 19.5%, 3-0 at 17.1%, 1-0 at 14.4%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Match Winner: Home Win — 66.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.58 - 0.59 against a Serie A baseline of 1.34 per side; Como 1907 rate 1.00 clear on the fitted ratings. Como 1907: only 4 days since the last match.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 66.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.58 - 0.59 against a Serie A baseline of 1.34 per side; Como 1907 rate 1.00 clear on the fitted ratings. Como 1907: only 4 days since the last match.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 65.6% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.6 against a league baseline of 3.7. Como 1907: only 4 days since the last match.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 63.6% confidence. First-half expected goals 0.98, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. Como 1907: only 4 days since the last match.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): NG (No) — 62.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.58 - 0.59, so the weaker attack still projects 0.59 goals. Como 1907: only 4 days since the last match.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 — 58% confidence. Expected total goals 2.17, from 1.58 - 0.59 (Serie A baseline 1.34 per side). Como 1907: only 4 days since the last match.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 48.9% confidence. Expected corners 8.7 against a league baseline of 8.8. Como 1907: only 4 days since the last match.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 45.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.58 - 0.59, which projects a 45% chance of a level score at the break. Como 1907: only 4 days since the last match.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 41.3% confidence. Expected goals 0.98 before the break and 1.19 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. Como 1907: only 4 days since the last match.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 2-0 — a Como 1907 win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 19.5%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a Como 1907 win at 87.5%, with the draw at 10.9%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
