US Lecce vs AS Roma prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 0.15 to 0.15 on expected goals, with 0.4% for over 2.5 goals in the Serie A.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
US Lecce host AS Roma in the Serie A, kicking off Monday 31 August at 16:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 0.15 for the hosts and 0.15 for the visitors, a combined 0.30 goals against a competition norm of 2.72.
There is almost nothing between these two on the numbers, and the draw at 76.2% is a live outcome rather than a formality.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
US Lecce — last 10: W-W-W-L-W-D-D-L-L-L (most recent first). That is 9 scored and 11 conceded, 0.90 and 1.10 per game. Both teams scored in 3 of the 10, and 3 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-L-D-L-W across 5, 4 scored and 6 conceded.
AS Roma — last 10: W-W-W-W-W-W-D-W-L-W (most recent first). That is 24 scored and 8 conceded, 2.40 and 0.80 per game. Both teams scored in 3 of the 10, and 5 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 7 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads W-W-W-L-L across 5, 10 scored and 9 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, US Lecce have won 0, AS Roma 5, with 1 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 22 Mar 2026: AS Roma 1-0 US Lecce.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 0.30 goals in this fixture, below the Serie A norm of 2.72, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
US Lecce carry the larger share of that expectation, at 0.15 against 0.15. Both teams to score sits at 2.2%, and over 2.5 goals at 0.4% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| US Lecce win | 11.9% |
| Draw | 76.2% |
| AS Roma win | 11.9% |
| Both teams to score | 2.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0.4% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 0-0 at 74.3%, 0-1 at 10.9%, 1-0 at 10.9%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 65.6% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.6 against a league baseline of 3.7. 2.4 points below the outside consensus.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): NG (No) — 62.6% confidence. Expected goals 0.74 - 1.78, so the weaker attack still projects 0.74 goals. 13.6 points above the outside consensus.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 — 61.6% confidence. Expected total goals 2.52, from 0.74 - 1.78 (Serie A baseline 1.34 per side). 16.6 points above the outside consensus, with nothing in the team news to explain it — treated as a warning, not an edge.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 61.3% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.14, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. 10.7 points below the outside consensus.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 57.7% confidence. Expected corners 9.4 against a league baseline of 8.8. 3.3 points below the outside consensus.
- Match Winner: Away Win — 52.1% confidence. Expected goals 0.74 - 1.78 against a Serie A baseline of 1.34 per side; AS Roma rate 1.03 clear on the fitted ratings. In line with the outside consensus.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Away Win — 52.1% confidence. Expected goals 0.74 - 1.78 against a Serie A baseline of 1.34 per side; AS Roma rate 1.03 clear on the fitted ratings. In line with the outside consensus.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 39.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.14 before the break and 1.39 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. 8.1 points below the outside consensus.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Away Win — 37.4% confidence. Expected goals 0.74 - 1.78, which projects a 41% chance of a level score at the break.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 0-0 — a draw, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 74.3%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a draw at 76.2%, with the draw at 76.2%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes an open game the goals numbers do not expect, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
